Excitement or Fear?

There is an interesting and frightening juxtaposition when you look at crop conditions today. Crops look good. No, scratch that; crops look fantastic. We haven’t seen a crop like this since 2009, which was a record-breaking year for our farm. But, incredibly, this year could actually be better than 2009.

The other side of this coin is that the reason crops look so good is because summer has been so cool. We have not seen a high breach 25 degrees Celsius since mid-July. We have had many days of cloudy, cool weather with some disturbingly cold nights. In fact, some areas of northern Saskatchewan actually had patchy, soft frost last night. While we have escaped any of this so far (as have most) and forecasts look for an improvement in temperatures, tensions are building for everyone here. Will the crop mature in time?

In the Northern Prairies, we grow mostly cool-season crops, like wheat, peas and canola. These crops do not like temperatures above 30 degrees, especially when they are flowering. These hot temperatures can cause seed and pod abortion, which reduces yield. This was what we experienced last year, although the crop was still a good one, for the most part. Canola especially loves flowering in cool weather, which is why it looks so phenomenal. 

Due to warm weather the past couple of years, we have been experimenting with long-season crops like soybeans and corn. These crops, and especially corn, require hot weather to mature in time before our usual frost of September 10th.

As we near the middle of August, it almost doesn`t matter whether your crop is warm or cool season. All crops are at risk. A frost in the next 3 weeks would be devastating. Our farm is simply not prepared to deal with that kind of financial hardship, especially not after the difficult years we have experienced in 2010-2011. We have invested a lot of money in this year`s crop, totalling over 1 million in direct inputs alone, not to mention the new machinery we have purchased to upgrade ageing equipment. We cannot withstand a significant frost event until at least September 15. Beyond the 20th or even the 25th would be wonderful. The risk has become very real.

It is odd to talk about such a wonderful crop in the field and then complain about the weather. But there is no event, not hail, wind, drought or excess rainfall, that causes the financial and emotional hardship that an early frost creates. You can quite literally lose the entire crop if it freezes too early, as many experienced in 2004 (read more about that year and its devastation here), which was one year all farmers in the Prairies will remember. 

Harvest is coming, and the crop of a lifetime is out there.

The calendar is ticking ever closer to September, with fields still green and flowering.

Will we make it? Only time will tell.

I’m becoming very nervous.

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